President Trump must stop making China great again

It is the ultimate geopolitical game, a blend of Chinese-inspired Go with 3D chess. Next week, there will be a high-stakes face-off in Beijing between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. China’s supreme leader is known to have played Go or Weiqi after graduating from university.

But there is no history of the American President’s chess ability. He is more The Art of the Deal sort of guy. Judging by his mercurial temperament, he probably does not have the patience to lure his opponent into a trap with a series of pre-planned moves. Xi certainly does.

In the past year, there has been a growing narrative in Chinese circles that America is in its “imperial twilight.” A decaying and hypocritical power is how The Economist described the views of a group of influential scholars after their sarcastic report on Trumpian policy.

Being bogged down in the Iran war and the oil shock that followed has only hardened those convictions. “Trump would want to turn the Iran page quickly,” Wu Xinbo, a Foreign Policy Advisory Committee member of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told CNN this week.

“If the US had gained an upper hand, Trump would have much stronger leverage. But now it’s clear: the US simply couldn’t handle Iran. So in a sense, when it comes to negotiations with China, its relative bargaining position has been weakened,” he said.

Washington’s response so far has been silence. That risks signaling weakness.

Craig Singleton, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Allies or enemies:

• Washington’s diplomatic bulldozer tactics have also destroyed one of the United States’ greatest assets. Its sprawling alliance network that has underpinned American power.
• Yet many of those allies are now considered threats by the MAGA-infested administration. Major European and NATO partners have felt the full wrath of Trump.

Delve deeper: “Things could now get worse. The attack on [Beijing’s BRICS+ partner] Iran is undermining US [influence] in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe, while strengthening rivals like China,” Hugo Dixon wrote recently in a commentary for Reuters’ Breakingviews.

Between the lines: “Beijing might not be a benign hegemon. The world could be heading towards a nasty, brutish future unless a humbler United States recommits itself to backing the rule of law once Trump’s presidency is over,” he said.

Big picture: But that is an eternity in politics. Already China is a manufacturing superpower with a vice-like grip on global supply chains, such as critical minerals or rare earths. Without them, today’s high-tech world would grind to a halt.

Bottom line: Xi has also brought in crippling new rules aimed at foreign businesses that shift supply chains out of the country. Penalties include “exit bans,” or literally holding staff hostage after seizure of assets, China Factor reported last month.

Why it matters: “Washington’s response has been silence. That risks signaling weakness. Left unaddressed, these rules will accelerate China’s development of other economic weapons,” Craig Singleton, a China expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said.

China Factor comment: The Taiwan question and China’s claims to the island will be another flashpoint. Already, the pieces on the board appear to be stacked in Xi’s favor, unless Trump starts to act like a statesman instead of talking like a “deranged dictator.”