Trump’s blockade has thrown down a challenge to China
Military pressure in the Strait of Hormuz ratchets up tensions with Beijing ahead of his visit to China
The Trump administration’s decision to carry out a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has raised tensions in the Persian Gulf to more perilous levels. The move was announced by American President Donald Trump after negotiations over a ceasefire with Iran broke down.
It was partly due to Tehran wanting to retain control of the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil transits. The blockade is designed to neutralize Iran’s efforts to close the maritime chokepoint to shipping it deems unfriendly.
Yet, this latest decision by the United States can be seen as an attempt by Trump to project strength. It also throws down a challenge to Beijing.
China has been the main purchaser of Iranian oil in recent years and is one of the few nations whose shipping can enter the strait unchallenged.
It appeared likely that this status would be tested earlier this week when the Rich Starry, a Chinese owned and operated tanker under US sanction for transporting Iranian oil, transited the strait unchallenged by American warships in the region.
State visit
But it has since been reported that the vessel turned back in the Gulf of Oman and headed back to the Strait of Hormuz. Washington now claims that six vessels were turned around.
The Rich Starry’s willingness to avert a potential Sino-American clash, suggests that Beijing is still unwilling to challenge Washington’s red lines, particularly so close to a state visit by Trump next month.
The China trip was original postponed from late March as a result of the conflict in Iran. Beijing has called the US blockade a “dangerous and irresponsible act.”
But what appears to be a deliberate decision not to challenge the blockade may be interpreted as another instance of Chinese weakness. It will probably embolden Washington to take more active measures against their tanker fleets.
Still, the US seizure of any Chinese shipping could certainly provoke a more dangerous outcome, with the prospect of increased tensions or even conflict with Beijing.
Should the the American navy seize a vessel, Beijing could see this as an act of war on Washington’s part – if it chooses to interpret such an incident as an effort to strangle the Chinese economy.
While an armed clash between the US and China in the Persian Gulf is unlikely, it is possible that Beijing may deploy its fleet stationed in Djibouti. The base is home to its 48th escort group, which has previously performed anti-piracy operations in the region.
It was also involved in escort duties for Chinese-owned ships in the Middle East. This raises the question over whether Washington would be willing to fire on Chinese warships to enforce its blockade. Yet, its response may be more indirect in nature.
One form this could take is the provision of Chinese weapon systems to Iran. China’s Beidou satellite navigation network has already played a significant role in guiding Iran’s existing stockpile of missiles against American and Israeli targets.
Missile system
Further Chinese military assistance, especially in the form of missiles and drones, can help Beijing retaliate indirectly through Iran. The New York Times reported intelligence sources alleging that China may have shipped shoulder-launched missiles to Iran.
This was strenuously denied by Beijing. Even so, potential retaliation by China may not even take place in the Middle East. Instead, it is possible that the People’s Liberation Army forces may target American assets and interests in the Asia Pacific.
This comes at a time where several American allies in the region have become increasingly vulnerable, with some missiles system being deployed to the Middle East from South Korea.
Coupled with fuel shortages as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the region is potentially even more exposed to China’s moves should Beijing choose to act.
While it prefers a more stable Middle East and global economy, having been one of the key beneficiaries of globalization, there are several opportunities for China’s wider goals. One of the biggest is the status of the Renminbi.
It has become prominent in the oil trade in the Persian Gulf, with Iran primarily dealing with transactions in the currency. This is in line with the emergence of the petroyuan in the 21st century to challenge the dominance of the petrodollar.
Alongside China’s position as a supplier of aviation fuel in the Asia Pacific, the conflict has entrenched and strengthened China’s role in the global economy. In addition, the potential shortage of petroleum can open the door for wide-scale adoption of electric vehicles, or EVs.
Chinese firms such as BYD are potential beneficiaries of a future EV boom. This echoes the popularity of Japanese cars during the OPEC crisis of the 1970s, due to their comparatively high fuel efficiency in contrast to American and European models.
As a result, a prolonged Middle East oil crisis may see firms such as BYD become household names, furthering the influence of “Brand China.”
Global image
Alongside these, the crisis may further Beijing’s push to present itself as a more stable partner in contrast to Washington’s more chaotic approach. This has gained traction due to the perceived unpredictability of the Trump administration over the past 15 months.
China already has a comparatively favorable global image when compared to the US. A wider conflict with Iran will probably enhance this. As a result, the path of the Rich Starry may chart the course of the Sino-American competition and the world that this competition will shape.
Tom Harper is a Lecturer in International Relations at the University of East London in the United Kingdom.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.