How China’s autocrats are aiming to absorb Taiwan
Governing the democracy would impose enduring security costs and shape Beijing’s domestic politics
Taiwan has fallen. Democracy on the island is dead. A terror campaign sweeps across the cities and countryside under China’s Communist Party. Public buildings fly the flag of five golden stars on a bright red background. The purges have begun. The prisons are filling up.
In this nightmare vision of the future, a scenario quickly unfolds as Taiwan is absorbed into the CCP’s “authoritarian system.” Instead of concentrating on the strategy for invasion, a report released this month looked at how Xi Jinping and the Party would govern Taipei.
“The implementation of Xi’s plans could see millions of Taiwanese excluded from public life and tens of thousands jailed unless they renounce support for an autonomous Taiwan and pledge loyalty to the CCP as Chinese patriots,” the Lowy Institute and RAND study stated.
“In response to the entrenchment of democracy in Taiwan, Xi has [even] toughened Beijing’s terms for unification,” authors Richard McGregor, of the Lowy Institute, and Jude Blanchette, of the RAND China Research Center, pointed out.
Between the lines:
- The analysis was published days before American President Donald Trump’s summit in Beijing with Chinese leader Xi, who again issued a stark warning about Taiwan’s future.
- China considers the bastion of democracy a renegade province, threatening to take it by force. Yet it has never ruled the island, which has close US defense ties.
Governing such a society by force would impose enduring security costs.
Lowy Institute and RAND report
What they were saying: In a closed-door session, Xi told Trump that the Taiwan question could push the United States and China toward “clashes” or “conflicts.” The readout of the talks was released by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Delve deeper: Still, the difficulties of a military operation are only surpassed by those of governing the island of 23 million people. “Taiwan would present challenges different from those Beijing faced in Hong Kong [or] Xinjiang,” the Lowy Institute and RAND study stressed.
Big picture: “Taiwan is a high-income liberal democracy with a strong political identity, dense civic institutions, an independent legal culture, and a free media. [It is also deeply integrated] into global economic, high-tech, and informational networks,” the report said.
Bottom line: “Governing such a society by force would impose large and enduring political, economic, and security costs, and in turn shape Beijing’s domestic politics, its international standing, and global economic stability for decades,” McGregor and Blanchette wrote.
China Factor comment: There is, of course, no guarantee that China’s forces could actually invade or blockade Taiwan. Such a move risks catastrophic casualties if the United States and its Asia-Pacific allies intervene. Defeat would also destroy Communist Party rule.