Is the sun starting to set on the ‘American empire?’

President Donald Trump’s “disaster” in Iran has exposed cracks in the military might of the Stars and Stripes. It might also herald the beginning of the end of the “American empire.” A setting of the sun on the most powerful superpower on Earth.

Once the 20th century’s “Arsenal of Democracy”, decaying “rust belts” are now a testament to the decline of US manufacturing over the past 40 years. “Made in China” has replaced “Born in the USA,” while runaway national debt has hit a staggering US$39 trillion.

“The change will have major implications for the United States [and allies] who have come to depend on American security guarantees,” Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military at Defense Priorities, warned in an explosive analysis this week.

“[It will also affect] the international community that relies on [the US] for the provision of global security goods, like freedom of navigation,” she wrote in The American Conservative.

“[While] it will take time for [the US] imperial project to disappear for good, from this point, retrenchment is inevitable. In 20 years, the world will look back on this moment as a turning point: the beginning of the “end of the American empire,” Kavanagh said.

The [Iran] war has not made Americans safer.

Jennifer Kavanagh, Defense Priorities

Decline and fall:

• The crux of her argument is that the fragile state of manufacturing in the US has eroded the industrial defense base. It comes at a time of unprecedented government debt.
• Taken together, a tipping point arrived in the Iran conflict after the American military drained its munitions supplies without achieving Washington’s major objectives.

Delve deeper: “The Defense Department relies on a global network of over 200,000 suppliers for its weapon systems and military equipment. All branches of the US military depend heavily on materials produced by China,” Defense News reported.

Big picture: So what does this mean for Washington’s network of allies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific? Kavanagh, previously a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, does not mince her words in a stark scenario.

Between the lines: “To put this more bluntly, if China were to attack Taiwan tomorrow, the United States might be forced to watch from the sidelines. The same is probably true of a major conflict in Europe,” she stressed.

Bottom line: “The [Iran] war has not made Americans safer, but they will pay for it for decades anyway. There is [also] little chance [the US] can produce enough missiles fast enough or reboot shipbuilding sufficiently to sustain its global commitments,” Kavanagh said.

China Factor comment: The endgame would be a new world order and the demise of “US military dominance.” Yet an alternative would be the rebranding of the vast economic and defense networks that Trump destroyed into a democratic partnership of equals.