Europe and the US buffeted by China’s trade winds 

Europe’s wind turbines have become part of a wider struggle over energy security, industrial might and the West’s dependence on China. Its capacity has surged dramatically, with wind power now supplying 17% of the European Union’s electricity up from 13% in 2019.

Offshore wind has expanded rapidly, with capacity growing strongly in the past decade. But Brussels wants renewables to provide at least 42.5% of the EU’s total energy mix by 2030. Wind is “pivotal” to this strategy, according to the European Commission’s action plan.

The challenge for Europe is to meet the 2030 target, it needs to build 33 gigawatts (GW) of new wind turbines annually. So far, data from 2022, 2023 and 2024 indicates that it has averaged only around 16 to 19 GW of new installations per year.

This leaves a significant gap between Europe’s target and its implementation. Across the Atlantic, the picture is just as uncertain in the United States.

Wind power

The US Inflation Reduction Act introduced during Joe Biden’s presidency promised a surge in renewable energy investment, including wind. But growing political opposition to turbines, especially from Donald Trump, has cast doubt over how far that momentum can go.

Europe’s installation shortfall and the retreat from wind energy in the US create a strategic opening for China. Its manufacturers dominate the global industry, with six of the top 10 companies producing over 70% of the world’s new wind turbines in 2024.

They are also between 30% to 40% cheaper than Western equivalents and promise faster delivery. This puts the West in a bind. It can accept Chinese help to meet climate targets quickly and cheaply, or reject it and risk falling further behind.

Europe could certainly rely on Chinese wind power to close its gap in renewable energy. The same could be said about the US, although its desire to push forward is not clear. American wind deployment fell to 5.2 GW in 2024 – the lowest level in a decade.

Turbine orders also dropped 50% in the first half of 2025. Yet, allowing Chinese firms greater market access creates a dilemma. While this would speed up Europe’s energy transition, the EU sees China as an economic security risk that undermines the union’s strategic autonomy.

The US appetite for Chinese wind tech is much lower than Europe’s. Aside from permit delays, grid connection bottlenecks and rising costs, Trump’s return to office in 2025 is an important factor in the renewable slowdown in the US.

The American president has publicly labelled wind power “a joke,” and has frozen federal permits for offshore and onshore projects, in addition to eliminating renewable energy tax credits. But that’s not all.

Energy incentives

Washington views China’s dominance in the technology as a security threat requiring protectionist barriers, and has blocked Chinese wind firms.

This includes national security probes into turbine imports, as well as 50% tariffs, and tax credit restrictions. Companies using Chinese-manufactured components are also barred from accessing federal clean energy incentives.

Still, Western tariffs haven’t slowed China’s wind industry, it has simply redirected it. Turbine exports surged 50% last year, exceeding 28 GW, a 13-fold increase from 2015. Chinese manufacturers are now selling wind turbines to more than 60 countries.

They have also established production or research operations in more than 20. So, the pattern is clear: China is targeting developing markets where Western competition is weak and renewable energy demand is surging.

In 2024, the biggest purchasers of Chinese turbines were Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Brazil, Egypt and Kazakhstan. All are participants in China’s economic development strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative. There are no signs that the momentum is slowing.

Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia are expected to add 120 GW of wind and solar capacity in the next decade, requiring US$73 billion in investment. In 2024, Chinese firms captured over 60% of renewables in these markets. That will expand further.

Protecting independence

While China’s wind turbine sales to the US and Europe may be uncertain, Beijing has secured a different prize. Since 2013, its companies have installed 156 GW of power capacity across Belt and Road Initiative countries, 70% in Asia and 15% in Africa.

The West may be protecting its own independence, but may also be handing the control of Africa and Latin America’s energy future and security to China, if things don’t change.

Chee Meng Tan is an Assistant Professor of Business Economics at the University of Nottingham in the United Kingdom.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.