China and Russia will seize on US weapons crunch

The fragile US-Iran ceasefire after 40 days of war came at an opportune time for the United States. Several reports indicated it was running out of weapons amid the conflict. These reports are concerning and surprising.

After all, the US spends more money on its military – nearly US$1 trillion annually – than the next nine highest-spending countries combined.

How can the American military be depleting its weapons against a largely isolated country that spends less than 1% of what Washington does? I believe that gauging US weapon stockpiles provides insight into how the military may be constrained in the future.

And what countries such as China and Russia may learn from the Iran war.

Operation Epic Fury, as the US calls its action against Iran, has employed a large amount of military assets in a short time. Analysts suggest the US is running low on Tomahawk, surface-to-surface missiles and air-defense interceptors.

Iran conflict

After a month of war, it has used over 850 Tomahawks, the sea- or ground-launched cruise missile that has a 1,500-mile range. That represents years of stockpile accumulation. The US, for instance, budgeted for 57 Tomahawks in 2025 and procured 22 of them.

It has built roughly 9,000 since the 1980s and deployed over 30% of its current stockpile since the start of the Iran conflict. The US military has used two types of surface-to-surface missiles at rates that are not sustainable if the war were to continue at its previous intensity.

These missiles have a range of 200 to 250 miles, or 320 to 400 kilometers, and are used for precision strikes against targets such as air defenses or enemy troops. The air-defense interceptors for the Patriot system are used to protect bases, infrastructure and troops.

The US has eight THAAD systems and has sent munitions from a Korean network to the Middle East for the Iran conflict. They operate by shooting a missile without an explosive payload. Instead, THAAD interceptors rely on kinetic energy to destroy incoming missiles.

Washington has used between 50% to 80% of its THAAD stockpile in its war with Tehran, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The rapid consumption of these resources has forced the US to divert missiles from other regions.

At the same time, it has been seeking new funding and contractors to build missiles. But producing and deploying them can take 18 to 24 months because certain components need to be manufactured before being assembled into a final product.

The US has alternatives, such as the shorter-range, low-cost unmanned combat drones, known as LUCAS. They are based on Iran’s Shahed drone design. But these lower-cost alternatives are less effective and increase the danger to ships, service members and civilians.

Military hardware

The Iran conflict is not the first time the US has been reported to be depleting its weapons stockpile. In part, that is due to its role as the world’s largest supplier of arms, accounting for 43% of global exports.

American companies has supplied Ukraine with substantial military hardware – defense systems, missiles, and tanks – for its war with Russia.

That has led to delays in weapons shipments, including stinger missiles and Paladin howitzers, to Taiwan, where the US has sent arms since the 1950s to deter China from invading the island.

After pausing aid, the Trump administration resumed sending weapons to Ukraine last year. And European support for Kiev comes through the purchase of US military equipment.

Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon has put additional pressure on its weapons stockpile. The US provides $3.8 billion annually in military aid to Israel, in addition to $16.3 billion since the Hamas attacks in 2023 on Washington’s closest Middle East ally.

Whether the US is depleting its weapons because it’s consuming its own stockpile or because of its global commitments, or both, it has ripple effects across the globe.

A conflict in the Middle East and new demands on the supply chain for increased production mean there will be shortfalls in Europe and Asia, where US-aligned countries rely upon arms exports for their security.

Cold War

Still, Washington has evolved its approach to preparing for threats since the end of the Cold War. In the 1990s, its strategy was to be prepared to fight in two regions simultaneously.

The US has scaled this back to focus on conflict against a single adversary in a single theater. The Iran war has nonetheless exposed the limits of its military dominance. And rivals such as China and Russia are learning lessons from the Iran war at Washington’s expense.

Michael A Allen is a Professor of Political Science at Boise State University in the United States.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.