US ramps up the pressure on China amid Iran crisis

Tensions are rising again between China and the United States after peace talks to end the Iran war collapsed in Pakistan. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran stalled over the weekend, when the theocratic regime refused to give up its “nuclear weapon ambitions.”  

It came hours after reports surfaced that Beijing was planning to ship missiles to prop up the Islamic Republic. American President Donald Trump immediately threatened to slap massive sanctions on China if their advanced air defense systems end up in Iran. 

“If China does that, China will have big problems, OK … If we catch them doing that, they get a 50% tariff, which is a staggering – that’s a staggering amount,” he said after the CNN network broke the news.

In response, a Chinese Embassy spokesperson in Washington called the reports that Beijing was “providing weapons” to Iran “baseless allegations.” They are “maliciously drawing connections and engaging in sensationalism,” the spokesperson said. 

Water fights:

• At least 45% of oil imports and 30% of China’s liquefied natural gas traverse the Strait of Hormuz. The critical artery has been blocked since the war erupted in February.
• Still, Iran has continued sending crude to the world’s second-largest economy, which is a crucial strategic partner for Beijing. Defense ties have also strengthened. 

[They are] baseless allegations … maliciously engaging in sensationalism.

Spokesperson, Chinese Embassy in Washington

Delve deeper: Yet, Trump’s decision to launch a naval blockade, “shutting down the strait on his terms,” has sent a shiver down the spine of Chinese President Xi Jinping. The aim would be to target Iranian ports and shipping, blocking two million barrels of daily oil exports.

Between the lines: “Beijing seeks to maintain a delicate balance that protects its economic interests in the Gulf while providing political support to its ally, Tehran,” Nadia Helmy, of the Beni Suef University in Egypt, pointed out on Modern Diplomacy today.

Big picture: But there are other issues facing Xi. “The sharp rise in oil and gas prices, and the shipping freeze have already put significant elements [of China’s] largely sanitized economic thinking at risk,” George Magnus, of Oxford University’s China Center, said.

Bottom line: “Not least [of these would be Chinese exports], which have been a key growth driver,” he wrote for The Wire China last month. Nothing has changed since then.

China Factor comment: What happens next is open to debate. But in Trump’s world, chaos will quickly follow, punctuated by four-letter outbursts on his Truth Social network.