Trump’s chaotic antics strengthen Xi’s Taiwan hand
The visit of KMT opposition leader Cheng to China this week has only created another layer of concern
Donald Trump’s chaotic presidency has been peppered with a profanity post on Truth Social, explosive outbursts, and “suicidal” foreign policy plays. In his 14 months in the White House, he has nearly ripped apart alliances dating back to the aftermath of World War II.
His election pledge to end the Ukraine conflict on his first day in office was another idle boast. So, was his “America First” agenda, which has since morphed into “America Alone,” as the winds of war blow across Iran, scattering close allies of the United States.
Against this backdrop, China’s President Xi Jinping appears to be a cool, calculating operator, with a military capability which rivals that of the United States. The bulk of which is aimed at the island democracy of Taiwan, considered a renegade province by Beijing.
It was hardly surprising, then, that Taiwan’s opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun, created a stir this week with her visit to the mainland in what was described as a “peace” mission. She is the head of the Kuomintang, or KMT, whose roots trace back to its party founder, Sun Yat-sen.
He became the first provisional president of the Republic of China in 1912 after the revolution that ended 2,000 years of imperial rule. “If you truly love Taiwan, you will seize every possible opportunity to keep it from being ravaged by war,” Cheng said as reported by Reuters.
Washington’s policy is based on ‘strategic ambiguity.’
Lessons from the past. Fears for the future:
- The KMT army under Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan, known as Formosa at the time, after being defeated by Mao Zedong’s Communist Party forces in 1949.
- But in the past decade, as China has become an economic powerhouse and military giant, Xi has not ruled out taking the island by force after conducting massive naval drills.
Delve deeper: Still, Cheng’s trip seems to be rooted in domestic issues after the KMT stalled plans by President Lai Ching-te’s government for US$40 billion in extra defense spending. For Xi, it mirrors his loathing of Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party.
Between the lines: “[Cheng’s trip] is highly risky. It might play well to a loyal KMT audience … but it [harks back] to a bygone era. It also comes at a time of serious political division over defense spending,” Chris Taylor, the founder of ChinaDiction, told China Factor.
Why it matters: “While [the KMT] might want to do some kind of deal [with Beijing], a survey released last month showed nearly 60% of Taiwanese polled said they would [resist an invasion by China],” he pointed out.
Big picture: Yet Cheng’s visit takes place just weeks before Trump’s planned trip to Beijing next month for talks with Xi. Trump will likely be told that “Taiwan is none of your business,” according to Karishma Vaswani, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist.
Bottom line: Washington’s Taipei policy is based on “strategic ambiguity” and opposition to changes in the status quo. “When Trump arrives, he may still be consumed by the war in Iran, and there is a real risk that Taiwan becomes a secondary concern,” Vaswani wrote.
China Factor comment: If that happened, it would leave “Taipei dangerously exposed – once again.” It would also reflect Trump’s erratic foreign policy.