Beijing’s BRICS wall of allies is rapidly crumbling
Partners of China are ‘reducing in number and in strategic weight’ amid missile strikes against Iran
China fears a regime change in Iran will eliminate another crucial strategic partner. Beijing has been horrified by the missile attacks by Israel and the United States, and Tehran’s retaliation against the Gulf nations.
Explosions have rocked the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Saudi Arabia and Oman have also been hit. These Gulf Cooperation Council countries have strong trade ties with the world’s second-largest economy, topping US$240 billion last year.
“China will be the most important global voice to watch,” Rexon Ryu, the president of The Asia Group, who previously served three American presidents, said.
“[These include] potential signs of whether this Middle East conflict could damage or even imperil US-China diplomatic engagement and even US President Donald Trump’s planned visit [later this month],” he told Barron’s, which is part of The Wall Street Journal group.
The partners that [China and Russia] have are reducing in number.
Ross Babbage, of the consultancy Strategic Forum
Piercing the smoke of war:
- Beijing is concerned that Washington’s move against Iran echoes January’s military operation to remove Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro.
- His government was a close ally of President Xi Jinping’s regime. The South American nation was also a crucial source of cheap oil, as is Iran.
Delve deeper: “The countries that have been authoritarian strongholds are falling over. The partners that [China and Russia] have are reducing in number and in strategic weight,” Ross Babbage, of the consultancy Strategic Forum, said.
Between the lines: “They talk in grandiose terms about all these regimes that are partners. But when push comes to shove, what have they done to support Venezuela against the United States,” he asked as reported by Newsweek.
Big picture: “The answer is they really couldn’t do anything. And I think it’s the same effectively, or very similar in reality, with Iran,” Babbage, who is also a fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, pointed out.
Bottom line: Still, he went even further, predicting that Cuba, which has vital economic ties with China, could be next. “We’re seeing a very real prospect that Cuba will fall,” he added.
China Factor comment: Beijing is rapidly running out of powerful geopolitical “friends.” The BRICS+ wall of allies is starting to crumble with “no-limits” ally Russia mired in an illegal war against Ukraine. Iran might be the latest brick to fall.