Succession and the fate of ‘Chairman of Everything’ Xi
‘The delicate issue of the transition of power has been under discussion for over a year’
Xi Jinping has ruled China’s Communist Party state for nearly 14 years. In 2023, he was handed an unprecedented third term as president. A mostly ceremonial title compared to his roles as general secretary of the CCP and commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
Known as the “Chairman of Everything,” Xi has used a never-ending purge to sideline rivals under the guise of an anti-corruption campaign. Yet in June, he will likely celebrate his 73rd birthday amid rising succession speculation. When will he step down or be pushed?
“Behind China’s renewed anti-corruption campaign lies a fierce power struggle at the top of the Party, where political purges entwine with the delicate issue of the president’s succession,” Intelligence Online reported this week.
“The delicate issue of the transition of power has been under discussion for over a year, with various scenarios being constantly re-evaluated. [But] it is difficult to predict who will be able to maintain control in such a fragile geopolitical and economic context for China,” it stated.
The vacuum left by … Xi will make succession especially challenging.
Tyler Jost and Daniel C Mattingly, Foreign Affairs
Behind the scenes:
- Last year, rumors circulated about Xi’s grip at the top of the Communist Party pyramid after reports about health issues filtered into the mainstream media in the West.
- There were also concerns about the amount of power he had accumulated. Naturally, this spurred frenzied speculation behind the walls of Party HQ at Zhongnanhai.
Delve deeper: “The vacuum left by a strongman such as Xi will make succession especially challenging, potentially triggering a scramble for power and a fight over the direction of the country,” academics Tyler Jost and Daniel C Mattingly wrote for Foreign Affairs in August.
Between the lines: “Such instability in the world’s second-largest economy could ripple beyond China’s borders – particularly as China navigates its tense relationship with Taiwan,” they pointed out in an article entitled, After Xi.
Big picture: What is certain is that nothing is certain inside the Party labyrinth of perplexing politics. “In promoting Chinese ascendancy, [Xi] has fanned Western and Asian fears about the ‘China Threat’,” veteran writer Ng Weng Hoong wrote in China Factor.
China Factor comment: Until he leaves office, that is unlikely to change amid a rapidly changing global landscape of aggressive big power policies.