Xi left rattled by Venezuela intelligence failure
Maduro capture exposes the flaws in China’s ‘real-time’ intell and threatens its trade in Latin America
President Xi Jinping has lavished US$100 billion on loans and investment in Latin America. Right in the heart of the United States’ backyard. But the US surgical strike to kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has illustrated the flaws in Chinese defense systems.
Along with a breakdown in real-time intelligence, they were bypassed in a “daring raid,” highlighting the “awesome capabilities” that have made the US military the “best in the world.” Just 48 hours later, Maduro was in a New York facing charges of “drug trafficking.”
For close ally Xi, it was a major humiliation, threatening China’s trade in the region, which topped a record $518 billion last year. It was also a warning after Trump singled out Colombia, Cuba and even Mexico under his new National Security Strategy.
“This looks to have been a massive [China] intelligence and analytical failure. Special envoy Qiu Xiaoqi met with Maduro in Caracas just hours before the raid, and may have still been in the country when it occurred,” Bill Bishop, the founder of Sinocism, said this week.
“As with Syria, the value of [a] partnership with China does not extend to political security. [But] if Cuba comes under so much economic pressure as a result of this US action that the government starts to wobble, Beijing officials would not be happy,” he wrote in his newsletter.
[The US] raid on Venezuela reveals the limits of China’s reach.
The Economist
Behind the news:
- China’s role in the region has acted as “an incubator” for “populism,” Evan Ellis, of the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, pointed out.
- “It’s not that China’s trying to produce antidemocratic regimes, but that antidemocratic regimes find a willing partner in the Chinese,” he said.
Delve deeper: Beijing’s strategy in the region is underpinned by the “importance of security and defense cooperation,” according to a Council on Foreign Relations brief, which was updated in the past 24 hours.
Between the lines: “China’s efforts to forge stronger military ties with its Latin American counterparts include arms sales [and] military training programs. Likewise, Cuba has sought to strengthen military ties [and] intelligence cooperation with [China],” it stated.
Big picture: Still, for Commander-in-Chief Xi and his armed forces, this has been a chastening experience. As The Economist reported, the US “raid on Venezuela reveals the limits of China’s reach – a reality check on China’s global power.”
China Factor comment: But then, the unpredictable has become predictable under Trump’s second term. As Hal Brands, of the American Enterprise Institute, wrote, “This attack shows the limits of solidarity among the autocratic powers.” China included.