Will Trump back Taiwan or cave under pressure from Xi?
Seeds of doubt are already in the minds of democratic allies in Europe and elsewhere around the world
American President Donald Trump risks sleepwalking into a conflict with China and Russia. Amid hours of peace talks to end Moscow’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and US naval forces massing off Venezuela’s coast, Beijing has launched “live-fire drills” around Taiwan.
The two-day exercises aim to simulate a blockade of the island democracy, and comprise battle groups of destroyers, frigates and an airforce armada of fighters, bombers and drones. Coast guard vessels have also been deployed.
As the year winds to a close, China’s show of military muscle follows Washington’s announcement earlier this month of a US$10 billion package of arms sales to Taiwan.
It also comes after Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned in November that an attack on the island would be an “existential threat” to her country.
At a media briefing today, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jia stated that China’s latest military maneuvers were aimed at “external interference forces,” according to the state-run Global Times media group.
“Any act of provocation that crosses the line on the Taiwan question is bound to be met with resolute countermeasures from China,” he stressed, a veiled threat aimed at Washington and Tokyo amid rising tension.
Recent remarks have only amplified doubts about US resolve.
Nathan Attrill at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Axis of Autocrats:
- Twenty-four hours earlier, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov backed up Moscow’s “no-limits” partnership with Beijing.
- “One of the basic principles [is] mutual support in defending national unity and territorial integrity,” he said in an interview with the state-backed Tass news agency.
Delve deeper: Autocrats Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have cemented a partnership that has prolonged the Ukraine war. Back in July, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, that Beijing could not accept a Russian defeat.
Between the lines: So, where does this leave Trump after his gushing praise for Xi and Putin, as well as his off-the-cuff contempt for the democratic process?
Big picture: “[His] recent remarks have only amplified doubts about US resolve over Taiwan’s security,” Nathan Attrill, an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said.
Bottom line: “By downplaying the increasing risk of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, Trump has introduced a degree of ambiguity that risks blurring long-standing US commitments and deterrence signals,” he wrote in an ASPI analysis in October.
China Factor comment: The seeds of doubt are already in the minds of long-standing democratic allies in Europe and elsewhere around the world. This has cast a shadow over friends and bolstered the fortitude of foes.