Russia’s critical lifeline looks like a China trap

Moscow is now deeply dependent on Beijing for everything from cars to chips. As Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine drags on, Western sanctions have shut off advanced technology and vital manufactured goods. China has stepped into the void. On its own terms.

Last week, a report from the Atlantic Council painted a stark picture, with Russia sliding into the role of “junior partner.” The relationship was described as “deeply asymmetrical” yet still “mutually beneficial.” Simply put, China calls the shots, while Russia takes the deals.

“This is [an] embarrassing reversal in the relationship compared to the 2000s, when Russia exported higher value-added goods to China,” Elina Ribakova, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Lucas Risinger, of the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, said. 

“In the ‘no limits’ partnership, China has served as a lifeline for Russia, while Russia has supplied China with cheap energy and raw materials,” they wrote in the Washington-based think tank’s study.

Oiling the wheels of war:

• Beijing is buying huge amounts of Russian oil, which is enough to offset lost European revenue amid crippling sanctions. But there is a major catch. China insists on discounts.
• Moscow, of course, has little choice but to accept this new reality while importing critical machinery, vehicles, and dual-use electronics for its war machine.

While Moscow has not become Beijing’s vassal … Russia is the junior partner.

Atlantic Council

Delve deeper: “Targeting Chinese supply chains could entail sanctioning the logistics providers on the Russian side … Or, by imposing secondary sanctions on the manufacturers and banks on the Chinese side,” Ribakova and Risinger stated.

Between the lines: “While Moscow has not become Beijing’s vassal – at least not to the extent that it would attack NATO purely to distract the Alliance from a war for Taiwan – Russia is certainly the junior partner,” they wrote.

Big picture: President Xi Jinping has already been accused of propping up his “dear friend,” Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin. He has even used China’s manufacturing might to keep Moscow’s military-industrial complex running, prolonging the  three-year conflict in Ukraine.

Bottom line: “[Beijing has] enhanced Moscow’s offensive and defensive capabilities, boosting China’s military-industrial production,” Linggong Kong, of Auburn University in the United States, wrote in a commentary for The Conversation earlier this year.

China Factor comment: Still, this Pact of Steel 2.0 version has continued to strengthen. Earlier this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, that Beijing did not want to see a Russian defeat in Ukraine. The plot thickens.