Why winning the space race will protect Taiwan

If China were to move toward attacking Taiwan, the first blows might not come from the sea or the air, but rather from space. Chinese ground lasers could incapacitate American satellites providing imagery of the areas around and over Taiwan. 

Chinese satellites equipped for close-range maneuvers could then disrupt or destroy US satellites that support critical military operations on the island. 

These include systems used for precise weapons targeting and secure communications between ships, aircraft, and ground forces. They provide the United States and its allies with navigation and real-time intelligence. 

Without them, American forces and their allies would struggle to coordinate or respond in the event of a Taiwan conflict, potentially fighting blind. 

Military experts have warned that losing access would severely hinder operations by the US, Taiwan, and its partners. If this were to happen, China’s People’s Liberation Army could gain a major advantage in the Taiwan Strait. 

Critical communications

This could shape the outcome before it begins. Today, the United States military relies on its space-based satellites for a wide range of missions, such as secure, reliable communications across a wide area on Earth – and much more. 

But this dominance of space may well prove to be the Achilles’ heel for Washington. If the American military lost its space-based capabilities, it would struggle to track enemy ships, guide missiles, and lose critical communications, making defeat more likely.  

Winning in space, however, would give both the US and Taiwan a fighting chance in a conflict with China. In April, the US Space Force released its war-fighting doctrine. In 22 pages, it set out an ambitious goal of maintaining “space superiority.”

But to stay ahead of Beijing, Washington needs a long-term national strategy that guides investments, technology, and partnerships critical for defense. 

China is halfway through its five-year national strategy for outer space, but has already met many of its technological milestones. 

It has expanded its launch vehicle capabilities, upgraded its satellite services, and built new commercial launch pads to support more frequent missions into Earth orbits and beyond. 

Milestones, such as its Tiangong space station and experimental modules, as well as returning lunar samples from the far side of the Moon, may seem distant from today’s issues. Yet, they show China’s determination to master advanced space operations.

That could reshape the military balance of power on Earth. It proves China is also seeking to outperform and even surpass the United States in space superiority by giving it the technological “high ground.” 

With that in mind, a long-term US national strategy to guide technical priorities, investments, and global partnerships is required. Here’s how: 

First, expand the Artemis Accords to create an Artemis Alliance. They are a set of agreements signed by 56 countries that commit to peaceful and cooperative behavior in space. 

Defense gap

An Artemis Alliance would go further by adding a security dimension. This defense group would be dedicated to deterring aggression and upholding norms in orbit, and would complement the Space Force’s International Partnership Strategy.

China is already expanding its circle of partners in space, signing bilateral ties with emerging powers and recruiting countries to its joint lunar research base with Russia. 

An Artemis Alliance would support the collective power of its members, presenting a united front promoting stability in space. 

Second, empower the National Space Council to drive American policy. Earlier this year, reports suggested that the White House considered abolishing the Council entirely, only to later signal plans to revive it. 

The Council needs to be institutionally strengthened, though that may be difficult moving forward, given shifting priorities between future administrations. It also suffers from a perception problem, often viewed as a low priority within the executive branch.  

Strengthening the Council would require more frequent vice-presidential meetings and the revival of Space Policy Directives, which would spell out clear goals across civil, commercial, and defense space sectors. 

Third, maintain US dominance by leveraging the private sector. A thriving commercial space ecosystem has taken shape in sectors like remote sensing, launch, and advanced technologies. 

This commercial ecosystem is possible thanks to investments by NASA, the National Science Foundation, and other agencies in early-stage commercial research and development. 

The United States continues to outpace global competitors in government-funded defense-related space investments, spending US$73 billion in 2024 on technology like new satellites for communication, navigation, and missile warning. 

Government spending

With $19.8 billion in government spending, China is closing the gap as the second-largest defense investor. Beijing has made notable progress in technologies such as laser communications, reusable launch systems, and satellite constellations. 

To maintain its lead, the US must actively support the commercial space sector and preserve channels for public-private collaboration. 

The decision to disband the Advisory Committee on Excellence in Space, or ACES, earlier this year removed a key venue for industry input on regulation and innovation in an effort to reduce government spending. 

Without structured discussions with the private sector, Washington risks slowing progress in advancing its capabilities and losing influence over future space norms. 

Reestablishing forums like ACES would help align federal policy with industry advances and Congressional intent, and help ensure American leadership in space for many more years. 

Fourth, do not cede the Moon to China. Maintaining space superiority in the long run will require that the United States returns to the lunar surface. 

An American presence on the Moon is a stepping stone to Mars, with lunar resources potentially sustaining a human presence and supporting deep-space missions. 

If China establishes a permanent presence on the Moon first, it could shape norms that serve its own interests and limit US and allied access in the future. 

The expense of lunar exploration may seem high, but history shows that investments in frontier space programs like Apollo and the ISS produce transformative technologies in areas such as healthcare, defense, and communications.

Space access

Of course, Washington may not outpace Beijing in every domain, but the Moon is one of the decisive arenas where an early presence is essential. Ceding that ground would carry consequences beyond prestige. 

If China becomes the leader in space, the effects may undoubtedly impact Earth from the Taiwan Strait to America’s ability to defend itself and its allies. 

The choices the US makes now could decide whether it retains the ability to shape space access and governance or relinquishes that role to its competitors. 

Andrew Hanna is a former congressional staffer with the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee who worked on international space issues. Kathleen Curlee is a research analyst at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.

This edited article was published by the Council on Foreign Relations under a Creative Commons license. Read the original here.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.