China’s covert military support targets the West

China has long maintained that it does not supply arms to any party at war. This has been a central tenet of its “noninterference” foreign policy.

But in recent years, Beijing has repeatedly faced accusations of doing the opposite by providing direct military assistance to nations engaged in conflict, while publicly denying doing so and even adopting a position of diplomatic neutrality.

That has seemingly been the case for two of China’s closest allies such as Russia in its war against Ukraine and Pakistan during its recent armed standoff with India in May.

Now, Beijing is facing scrutiny over alleged military links to Iran – a country engaged in a long-running shadow conflict with Israel that tipped into a short-lived hot war.

After the ceasefire that followed the 12-day skirmish in the Middle East, China reportedly supplied batteries for surface-to-air missiles to Tehran in exchange for oil. Its defense network had been severely damaged by the Israeli bombardment.

Mass destruction

The Chinese Embassy in Tel Aviv denied the reports, stating that Beijing firmly opposes the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and does not export arms to countries at war. But the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has yet to issue a statement on the alleged transfer.

As an expert specializing in China’s grand strategy, I think it is highly possible that Beijing would offer Tehran military support while denying it publicly. Such plausible deniability would allow China to assert military influence and showcase some of its hardware.

At the same time, it would deflect international criticism and preserve diplomatic flexibility. But the tactic works only so far.

As indirect evidence accumulates, such covert action may gradually develop into an open secret. This would lead to what scholars term “implausible deniability,” where denial is no longer credible even if it is still officially maintained.

Although Beijing has consistently said it is neutral in the Russia-Ukraine war that broke out in 2022, China has, in practice, quietly supported Moscow. In part, that is because it shares the same strategic goal of challenging the Western-led international order.

Recently, Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that Beijing could not afford to see Russia lose the war in Ukraine. He was said to have warned that defeat would likely bring the full force of US strategic pressure to bear on China.

From Beijing’s perspective, Moscow plays a vital role in keeping the West preoccupied, offering China valuable strategic breathing room by diverting the United States’ attention and resources away from the Asia-Pacific region.

Beyond deepening trade relations that have become a lifeline for Moscow’s economy under Western sanctions, Beijing has reportedly supplied Russia with large quantities of dual-use goods that can be used for civilian and military purposes.

Weapons production

They have enhanced Moscow’s offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as boosting China’s military-industrial production. Beijing has also allegedly provided satellite imagery to assist Russia on the battlefield.

While the US and Europe have repeatedly tried to call out the Chinese government for aiding Moscow militarily, Beijing has consistently denied such claims.

On April 18, Ukraine formally accused China of directly supporting Russia and slapped sanctions on three Chinese-based firms that Kyiv said was involved in weapons production for Moscow’s war effort.

In what has become a common refrain, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry rejected the Ukrainian accusation, reaffirming that China has never provided lethal weapons to any party in the conflict. It then reiterated its official stance of promoting a ceasefire and peace negotiations.

Beijing has also presented itself as a neutral party in the India-Pakistan conflict, and has called for restraint on both sides, urging peaceful dialogue. But in practice, China is allied with Pakistan and has provided direct military support to Lahore.

This appears to be driven by Beijing’s desire to curb India’s regional influence and its strategic partnership with the US, while protecting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a massive bilateral infrastructure project.

In the latest flare-up in May, Pakistan deployed Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets for the first time, reportedly downing five Indian aircraft. Its air defense also relied heavily on Chinese-made surface-to-air missile systems during the short conflict.

Advanced Chinese radar systems and drones for reconnaissance and strike operations backed up Lahore’s armed forces. Overall, more than 80% of Pakistan’s military imports have come from China in the past five years.

In what would be a far more stark example of military support if proven true, the deputy chief of India’s army alleged that Beijing had provided Pakistan with real-time intelligence on Indian troop movements during the conflict.

When asked to respond, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said they had no knowledge of the matter and reaffirmed that Beijing’s ties with Lahore are not directed against any third party.

Strategic relationship

Like with Russia and Pakistan, Iran has increasingly been seen as a crucial China partner. In 2021, they signed a 25-year, US$400 billion comprehensive cooperation agreement that covered trade, energy and security. It signaled the depth of their strategic relationship.

The accord was indicative of the strategic value Beijing places on Iran. From China’s perspective, Tehran presents a counterbalance to the influence of the US and its allies – especially Israel and Saudi Arabia – in the region.

But recently, Tehran’s position has become weaker. Not only has its air defense infrastructure suffered badly in the confrontations with Israel, but its proxies and allies – Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria’s Assad regime – have either been devastated or collapsed altogether.

Under these circumstances, it is strategically compelling for Beijing to provide support to Tehran in order to prop up the regime. Indeed, China has frequently circumvented sanctions, with an estimated 90% of Iran’s oil exports still going to the world’s second-largest economy.

Although Beijing did not extend any substantive support to the country during the 12-day war, reports have surfaced that Tehran is looking to Beijing as an alternative defense supplier.

The thinking here is that Russia, Iran’s traditional military partner, is no longer able to provide sufficient, quality defense equipment. Some influential social media posters in China have gone as far as advocating for direct military sales by Beijing.

If China does do this, I believe it is likely to follow the same playbook it has used elsewhere by denying involvement publicly while covertly providing assistance.

Doing so allows the Chinese government to maintain diplomatic ties with Iran’s regional rivals, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, while simultaneously benefiting from a turbulent Middle East that distracts Washington and grants Beijing strategic breathing room.

Military alignment

China’s use of plausible deniability reflects a broader strategic ambition. Namely, it wants to assert influence in key conflicts without triggering an open backlash.

By quietly supporting partners while maintaining a facade of neutrality, Beijing aims to undermine Western dominance, stretch US strategic focus and secure its own interests, while avoiding the risks and responsibilities of open military alignment.

Linggong Kong is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at Auburn University in the United States.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.