China’s thirst for water and the Dalai Lama’s dilemma

As the 14th Dalai Lama celebrated his 90th birthday with thousands of Tibetan Buddhists, there is already tension over how the next spiritual leader will be selected. Controversially, the Chinese government has suggested it wants more power over the process.

Traditionally, Tibetan leaders and aides seek a boy who is seen as the chosen reincarnation of the Dalai Lama. It is possible that after they do this, Beijing will try to appoint a rival figure.

Yet, the current Dalai Lama, who lives in exile in India, insists that the process of succession will be led by the Swiss-based Gaden Phodrang Trust, which manages his affairs. He said no one else had authority “to interfere in this matter.”

That statement is being seen as a strong signal to China.

Throughout the 20th century, Tibetans struggled to create an independent state, as their homeland was fought over by Russia, the United Kingdom and China. In 1951, Tibetan leaders signed a treaty allowing a Chinese military presence on their land.

Independent state

Beijing established the Tibetan Autonomous Region in 1965, in name this means that Tibet is an autonomous region within China, but in effect it is tightly controlled. Tibet has a government in exile, based in India, that still wants Tibet to become an independent state.

This is a continuing source of tension between the two countries. India also claims part of Tibet as its own territory.

Beijing sees having more power over the selection of the Dalai Lama as an opportunity to stamp more authority on Tibet. Its strategic position and its resources are extremely valuable to China, and play a part in Beijing’s wider plans for regional dominance.

Tibet provides China with a naturally defensive border with the rest of southern Asia, with its mountainous terrain providing a buffer against India. The brief Sino-Indian war of 1962 still has implications for both countries today, where they continue to dispute border lands.

As with many powerful nations, China has always been concerned about threats within its neighborhood. This is similar to how the United States has used the Monroe Doctrine and how Russia seeks to maintain its influence over former Soviet states.

Beijing views Western criticism of its control of Tibet as interference in its sphere of influence.

Another source of contention is that Beijing views boundaries such as the McMahon line defining the China-India border as lacking legitimacy. The border was drawn up when China was at its weakest in the 19th century.

Known in China as the “century of humiliation”, this was characterized by a series of unequal treaties, which saw the loss of territory to stronger European powers.

This remains a source of political tensions in China’s border regions including Tibet, and is a controversial part of its historical memory, influencing relations with the West.

Climate change

Tibet’s importance to Beijing also comes from its vast water resources.

Access to more water is seen as increasingly important for China’s wider push towards self-sufficiency which has become imperative in the face of climate change. This also provides Beijing with a significant geopolitical tool.

For instance, the Mekong River rises in Tibet and flows through China and along the borders of Myanamar and Laos and onward into Thailand and Cambodia. It is the third longest river in Asia, and is crucial for many of the economies of Southeast Asia.

It is estimated to sustain 60 million people.

China’s attempts to control water supplies, particularly through the building of huge dams in Tibet, has added to regional tensions. Around 50% of the flow to the Mekong was cut off for part of 2021, after a Chinese mega dam was built.

This caused resentment from other countries which depended on this natural resource.

Moves by other nations to control regional supplies show how it is now becoming a negotiating tool. India attempted to cut off Pakistan’s water supply this year as part of the conflict between the two. Control of Tibet allows China to pursue a similar strategy.

It would give Beijing leverage in its dealings with New Delhi, and other governments.

Trade tensions

Another natural resource is also a vital part of China’s planning. Tibet’s significant lithium deposits are crucial for Chinese supply chains, particularly for the electric vehicle industry. Beijing is attempting to reduce its reliance on Western firms and supplies.

It comes at a time amid trade tensions between the United States and China, and Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods.

Tibet’s value to China is a reflection of wider changes in a world where water is increasingly playing an important role in geopolitics. With its valuable natural resources, China’s desire to control Tibet is not likely to decrease.

Tom Harper is a Lecturer in International Relations at the University of East London.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.