UK dilemma as China and the US pile on the pressure
‘A serious strategy would include a contingency plan if China becomes globally dominant’
Walking a tightrope between close ally the United States and political predator China has left the United Kingdom in a precarious position. Balancing Washington’s new trade doctrine and Beijing’s clean tech expertise is forcing London to reevaluate its foreign policy.
A rapid mood change since the days of the so-called “special relationship” with the US. Coined by British statesman Winston Churchill after the end of World War II, he used the phrase during his famous “Iron Curtain” speech in the university city of Fulton in Missouri.
Those seeds of a new Cold War were planted in 1946 as the Soviet Union tightened its grip on Eastern Europe. By 1991, the Communist empire had collapsed, leaving the US as the preeminent power before the emergence of Red China.
“The UK cannot afford to lock in dependence on the US at the expense of [Chinese] supply chains and technologies essential for economic prosperity,” a report by the London-based think tank Chatham House pointed out this week.
“A serious UK-China strategy would include a contingency plan for how Britain can adapt if China becomes globally dominant,” William Matthews, the author of the study, wrote before its release on Monday.
It is very difficult to judge the merits of the UK strategy.
William Matthews, Chatham House
Caught in the middle:
- The report comes ahead of the Labour government’s new “China Audit.”
- It will outline a long-term strategy for London’s relationship with Beijing.
Delve deeper: Whatever happens, there are no easy solutions. The Chatham House report concluded that the UK must engage with Beijing economically “even if this prompts retaliation” from Washington.
Between the lines: “It is very difficult to judge the merits of the UK strategy without publication of at least some of the China Audit’s specific findings. A lack of detail severely limits the potential for democratic scrutiny,” academic Matthews stressed.
Big picture: Still, the UK is not the only nation struggling with a world order in flux. But after Brexit, it has lost the geopolitical clout of being a key player in the European Union.
Bottom line: “There is general agreement that [the Trump administration’s] geopolitical shock therapy is a sign of a new world order,” Richard Youngs, of the University of Warwick in the UK, wrote in a commentary for The Conversation earlier this year.
End game: “While European powers recognize this, their policies are not, in practice, tailored towards such a change,” he said.
China Factor comment: As London risks finding out, time might be running out on playing a waiting game with Beijing and Washington.