Cold War 2.0 and the rise of rogue superpowers

American President Donald Trump’s erratic behavior risks losing Cold War 2.0 to China. The fallout would shatter the global order and involve a “brawl between two bellicose, disruptive states trying to topple the liberal international order.”

In short, this would resemble a Hollywood blockbuster movie with no heroes, just villains in various shades of gray. Liberal democracies would end up as collateral damage between two rogue superpowers warped by dogma.

“So many nations would lose in that scenario, regardless of whether Beijing or Washington won,” Hal Brands at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a center-right think tank based in Washington, pointed out.

“The US has been waging [a] struggle [against China] for nearly a decade. It has made real, even historic progress on many fronts,” he wrote in a commentary entitled The US Is Already Losing the New Cold War to China.

“Yet there are still crucial areas in which urgency, resources, or competitive capacity are lacking. And in Trump’s wild, sometimes self-destructive second presidency, it’s far from clear that the US has the winning approach,” Brands said.

Partnership with Russia collides with [China’s] ambitions

Brookings academic Patricia M Kim

Background:

• Trump launched tariffs against China during his first term in 2017. His successor, Joe Biden, concentrated on building an alliance to combat Beijing’s trade policies.
• On his return to the White House, Trump rolled out a tariffs blitz, hammering friends and foes alike. Historic allies have been left reeling and disillusioned with Washington.

Delve deeper: “A second lesson is that the New Cold War has killed globalization – so winning means moving from ‘one world’ to two. The Sino-American [battle] is, fundamentally, a techno-economic contest,” Brands at AEI stressed.

Between the lines: But there are also other issues at play. Long-standing relationships, which have cemented the United States’ position as the dominant economic superpower, can be fixed if Trump uses diplomatic patience instead of inflicting pain on America’s friends.

Big picture: Like Trump, China’s leader Xi Jinping is gaffe prone. His decision to stand with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Victory Day Parade in Moscow on Friday looks a mistake. It will mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe.

Bottom line: The red carpet event in Red Square comes at a time when Russia is involved in a four-year illegal war against Ukraine amid rising condemnation in Europe.

What they said: “The image of Xi in Moscow underscores the tension at the heart of China’s foreign policy. Its partnership with Russia collides with its ambitions to be seen as a responsible global leader,” Brookings academic Patricia M Kim wrote in a commentary.

China Factor comment: Still, the greatest fear is that “Trump goes about wrecking those things we once expected a US president to defend.” Effectively, that would end Pax Americana and destroy Washington’s network of democratic allies.