China must look West to trump the US threat
‘If Beijing plays its cards right, the danger Trump represents to its economy might not be as significant’
Donald Trump has a knack of antagonising and confusing China. During his first presidential campaign, he accused China of “raping” the US through unfair trade practices. But once in the White House, he called Chinese President Xi Jinping a “good friend.”
Last year, again on the campaign trail, he suggested he would be tough on China in a second term, and days away from becoming president, nothing looks likely to change.
Trump has suggested he could raise tariffs on all Chinese goods up to 60%, and is likely to appoint Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Mark Waltz as national security adviser.
Both are “China hawks” who believe that Washington should toughen its stance and view the country as a national security threat to the United States.
China is prepared for a tougher climate, which may explain why it has increased trade with Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. But Beijing is also looking to engage the West, at least the non-US part of it, for economic, political and security reasons.
Electric vehicles
The Chinese government could see Ottawa as a solution to help meet its energy needs, as Canada is rich in oil, coal and iron. It could even warm up to Canberra, as Australia has abundant lithium, which is crucial for making electric vehicles.
Ultimately though, Beijing might need to maintain ties and improve its relationship with the European Union. The EU holds the distinction of being China’s second largest trading partner, and exports have soared in the past few years.
This took place as Beijing pivoted away from manufacturing the “old three” exports – household appliances, furniture and clothing – to the tech-intensive “new three”, in electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells.
Since they are an important component in China’s economic growth, the EU represents a crucial market. Nonetheless, it is not an easy win.
Brussels has accused Beijing of unfairly subsidising Chinese electric vehicle companies and has imposed tariffs of up to 45% since late October. But Beijing may have substantial room to smooth relations with the European bloc, and there are signs that this is happening.
Still, the row over China’s potential involvement with anchor dragging in the Baltic Sea to damage communication cables will not have helped matters.
Fortunately for the world’s second-largest economy, the EU is not a united front. Voting patterns on tariffs on Chinese EVs last year reveal an interesting fact – 10 nations supported them, five were against and 12 abstained.
‘No-limits’ partnership
Potentially, Beijing could sway detractors and fence-sitters in Brussels by lowering barriers to EU companies entering China and reducing subsidies for Chinese firms in Europe.
But there are other problems as well. China has a partnership of “no limits” with Russia, and this has proven to be a concern for the West and particularly Europe. Following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO declared:
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and values.
Those growing concerns over Beijing’s activities in Europe and Asia may have prompted NATO to invite Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea or the Asia Pacific 4 to the defense alliance’s 2022 summit.
While European officials have dismissed a formal alliance, there are increasingly frequent discussions and meetings between both sides.
China could help alleviate Western fears by resolving one of Europe’s thorniest geopolitical issues, the Ukraine-Russia war, although that is unlikely. Yet, an attempt to help create a peace deal could lessen Western perception of the “Chinese threat.”
In the meantime, Beijing will continue to engage with Washington. Aside from being the third largest trading partner with China after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the EU, the US remains a technological, economic and military powerhouse.
Trump danger
Former US president John F Kennedy once wrote:
When written in Chinese, the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters – one represents danger and one represents opportunity.
If China plays its cards right, the danger that Trump appears to represent to its economy might not be as significant as first thought. After all, he is not always predictable.
Chee Meng Tan is an Assistant Professor of Business Economics at the University of Nottingham in the United Kingdom.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.