Fractures show in the fragile US-China relationship

Trump’s ‘administration is likely to present even more serious challenges’ for Beijing and Washington 

As the year draws to a close, the stability of US-China relations is fragile after the election of US president-elect Donald Trump. But there may be a silver lining. 

People in the United States, China, and other countries will likely fear escalating tensions and oppose further confrontation.

The year began with some modest optimism following the San Francisco summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden in late 2023. 

The meeting reflected the possibility of real progress on key issues, occurring halfway through the US Trade Representative’s statutory four-year review of Trump’s tariffs.

Some observers believed that the Biden administration would find it in US interests to row back on them, given their controversial results.

Senior officials from both nations maintained a sense of normalcy and stability in their diplomacy. President Xi and President Biden held a phone call in April and met in person at the November APEC Leaders’ Summit in Lima. 

Beijing visits

They reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining dialogue in a complex relationship.

Meanwhile, high-level meetings continued, including separate Beijing visits by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken in April. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s trip followed in May. 

Economic officials and military officers also conducted talks on topics of shared interest and concern in more institutionalized settings. They cooperated on issues such as climate change, fentanyl trafficking, and the repatriation of illegal immigrants.

But the relationship has remained largely confrontational. 

Washington has ramped up tariffs on Chinese exports. Photo: Pixabay

The United States has continued to pursue its policy of strategic competition with China, and Beijing has enacted countermeasures. The Biden administration did not make much effort to improve the relationship. 

The review of Trump’s high and counterproductive tariffs on Chinese imports did not produce recommendations for meaningful reductions.

Biden’s administration spent time and energy devising ways to implement the policy of strategic competition – or confrontation – with China. These included incentives promoting near-shoring and friend-shoring in the production of commodities.

And additional high-tech export restrictions against Beijing.

Washington also added more Chinese companies to the restrictive US Bureau of Industry and Security’s Entity List and prohibited American investment in China’s high-tech sectors. The administration also sold more and better weapons to Taiwan. 

Common security

It even issued a China travel warning until relaxing it last month. 

At the same time, Biden’s administration has tried to rally other countries to develop common security and economic policies against Beijing, while the US Congress has been busy drafting anti-China statutes and resolutions.

They range from providing more support to Taiwan to suspending China’s permanent normal trade relations with the United States. 

Both the administration and Congress have threatened sanctions against China over its alleged support for Russia as battlefield odds shifted in Moscow’s favor amid the invasion of Ukraine.

Despite Washington’s pressure, Beijing has remained strategically defiant. 

China’s leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: Wikimedia

It has accelerated efforts to diversify its trade relations away from the US market. It has also intensified indigenous technology development to counteract export restrictions and continued to advocate for free trade.

China has championed initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and has applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Beijing expanded cooperation with Moscow, deepening trade and conducting joint military exercises despite US frustration. China has also promoted international cooperation through the BRICS bloc and the Belt and Road Initiative. 

While demanding that the United States observe its commitments regarding Taiwan under the three foundational US-China communiques, Beijing increased military activity around Taiwan in response to perceived US and Taiwanese provocations. 

Bilateral trade

China has also accelerated its military modernization program to deter US intervention.

These interactions have contributed to uncertainty in bilateral trade, relatively declining technological import dependence, reduced foreign investment, and increasingly negative public sentiment.

Even this fragile stability may be ending with Trump poised to re-enter the White House. 

His second administration is likely to present even more serious challenges to US-China ties, given his political track record and the policy inclinations of some key cabinet appointees.

The relationship’s trajectory will likely be defined by increased tariffs on Chinese exports and further controls on high-tech products. 

More Chinese companies are likely to be added to the Entity List. 

China’s Navy has conducted ‘live-fire’ drills in the Taiwan Strait. Photo: PLA Daily

Trump’s presidency will also likely obstruct people-to-people exchanges, intensify provocations in the Taiwan Strait, and reduce diplomatic communication. Under these circumstances, the risk of accidental military conflict would drastically increase.

But challenges can often come with opportunities. 

Further deterioration of the US-China relationship poses serious risks for both countries and the world. Trump’s campaign promise to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports would have dire consequences if implemented. 

It would trigger further inflation in the United States, massive job losses in both countries, global trade disruption and lower the threshold for China to undertake potential retaliatory actions.

Taiwan Strait

Beijing could refuse to cooperate with Washington to reduce fentanyl trafficking, expand military action in the Taiwan Strait, pursue an arms race, or offer support for global activities against Washington’s interests. 

Such prospects may motivate American citizens and the international community to resist further escalation in tensions.

If the mutual benefits of cooperation cannot rescue US-China relations, they may ironically be salvaged by people of both countries and the international community against efforts to escalate confrontation for fear of catastrophic consequences.

Jia Qingguo is a professor and former Dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University. He is also Director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding and Director of Global Governance at Peking University.

This article is republished from East Asia Forum under a Creative Commons license. Read the original here.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.