China’s reputation in the Middle East left in tatters

President Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet for Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad last year during a state visit to Beijing. The tête-à-tête between the two autocrats concluded with Xi vowing to support Assad in “opposing external interference” in Syria.

Words that dissolved into dust after rebel forces seized the Syrian capital of Damascus at the weekend. The lightning offensive in a decade-long civil war forced him and his family to flee the country, ending a 50-year dynasty.

Yet, as the horrors of Assad’s regime are laid bare to the world, Xi’s prestige has been severely “tarnished” in the Middle East, and China’s influence diminished.

“The fall of Bashar al-Assad represents a watershed moment for the Middle East and a critical test for China’s foreign policy,” Jesse Marks, of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank, wrote in his Coffee in the Desert newsletter this week.

“China faces challenges stemming from its backing of Assad, [while] its alignment with a regime implicated in war crimes could tarnish its image in the region and beyond,” he said.

Behind the scenes: 

• In 2022, Syria signed up to China’s signature foreign policy project, the Belt and Road Initiative, joining the club of 140 nations.
• It came after a series of ceasefires were agreed two years earlier.
• The plan was to rebuild a country shattered by war as China’s contractors moved in. 

China now risks being sidelined in Syria’s post-Assad landscape.

Jesse Marks of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank

Delve deeper: But all that changed after rebel forces took the crucial city of Aleppo in November. Eight days later, they swept into Damascus after Assad’s army collapsed. With key backers Russia and Iran bogged down in other conflicts, the war was lost.

Between the lines: “Having invested political capital in the Assad regime and framing its normalization with the Arab League as evidence of the success of its diplomatic model, China now risks being sidelined in Syria’s post-Assad landscape,” Marks said.

Big picture: Still, China has become a major economic partner with the Gulf states and the broader Middle East region with high-tech exports and critical infrastructure projects. But its manufacturing power has yet to translate into diplomatic muscle..  

Why it matters: “There’s been a lot of an exaggerated sense of China’s ability to shape political outcomes in the region,” Jonathan Fulton at the Atlantic Council think tank said as reported by the Reuters news agency on Tuesday.

China Factor comment: Victory by the rebel forces in Syria has dealt a geopolitical blow to Beijing’s buddies in the Axis of Upheaval, Iran, and Russia. When Assad and his family left Damascus, they headed straight to Moscow after being granted asylum.