China-backed elections in Myanmar will be a sham

The State Administration Council, or SAC junta in Myanmar, is in its worst position since the beginning of the civil war in 2021. Operation 1027, a joint assault in 2023 by three ethnic armed organizations in northern Shan state, has catalyzed rebel victories.  

The ethnic armed groups and other rebel People’s Defence Forces have been making significant territorial gains, targeting border areas, junta bases, and industrial centers. 

The SAC has resorted to mandating military service for all men and women, including forcibly recruiting Rohingya into service under threat of arrest. 

Following the new conscription law, reports have emerged of abductions and illegal detention, with large numbers of young people fleeing to Thailand to escape it.

The junta has faced significant territorial losses, impacting its ability to extract vital resources. While the conflict is unlikely to stop soon, rebel forces now stand a better chance of victory than at any other point in the civil war.

Chinese border

The possibility of SAC losing power and the inevitable transition period to a new government would be considered fraught with danger for many observer states – none more than China. 

Beijing’s Myanmar strategy is one characterized by pragmatism. China maintains relations with both the SAC and a number of ethnic armed organizations and has provided political and material support to parties involved in both sides of the conflict.

With the relaunching of operations along the Chinese border, Beijing has grown increasingly frustrated with SAC leadership and northern ethnic armed organizations for spreading conflict that threatens its interests. 

Along with concern for Chinese populations along the border, Beijing also has significant economic interests in Myanmar, including a natural gas pipeline, rare earth mineral mines, and a port to be established in the country’s southwest.

While some of these economic projects began under the deposed National League for Democracy government led by Aung San Suu Kyi, the SAC has continued to work closely with China.

Beijing also has no guarantee that any ethnic armed organization would be willing to carry out the same level of economic cooperation. 

With no centralized opposition force representing all rebel factions in Myanmar, the SAC remains China’s best alliance option.

It is no wonder that Beijing has pushed so hard in talks with combatants and in high-level meetings with regional leaders for an end to the conflict in Myanmar. China has attempted to negotiate ceasefires multiple times, all of which have been broken. 

Any Beijing-led talks benefit the SAC by stopping rebel momentum and allowing its armed forces – the Tatmadaw – to regroup and direct their attention elsewhere.

Political leaders

Elections have emerged as a key component of Chinese support for the junta, following a broader pattern within Beijing’s foreign policy. 

In August, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi promised to provide technological assistance and monetary aid for the SAC’s upcoming elections. Beijing also made its desire for a ‘democratic transition’ in Myanmar clear with ASEAN political leaders. 

The SAC has ensured that they will win any elections that take place, having dissolved 40 opposition parties, including the National League for Democracy. The NLD won almost 90% of the popular vote in Myanmar’s last election in 2020. 

Other political parties have been prevented from registering for the election. This almost certain victory would allow the junta to portray itself as the democratically elected government of Myanmar and the rebels as threats to democracy.

It would change the narrative of the civil war. Beijing and the SAC’s other allies will certainly latch onto this new narrative. 

Promoting democracy and peace efforts has increasingly been a part of China’s foreign affairs strategy, as it seeks to portray itself as a key player on the world stage. 

It would serve Beijing’s interest if it were able to lead Myanmar towards peace, even if the government it props up is inherently authoritarian.

The SAC plans to carry out elections in 2025 with support from the Chinese government. The United States, Japan, South Korea, and other democracies must expose these elections for what they are – unfree and unfair. 

Messaging campaigns

Junta-backed elections will not reflect public support in Myanmar, and they certainly will not bring about an end to fighting. Instead, states should work with opposition groups to ensure a truly peaceful transition once the SAC is defeated.

While Washington has already taken steps towards dialogue with the shadow National Unity Government, additional messaging campaigns need to occur if elections are held in 2025 to delegitimize the SAC. 

The junta, China, and their allies will try to take control of the narrative surrounding these elections. The United States and its allies must take control of it first.

Alexis Turek is a Research Associate at the Coalition Defense of Taiwan Project at the American Enterprise Institute.

This article is republished from East Asia Forum under a Creative Commons license. Read the original here.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.