Trump’s bromance turns into a diplomatic ‘love triangle’
He might be able to drive a wedge between Putin and Xi but it could ‘un-unite’ Europe and the US
Reports of a phone call between the United States president-elect, Donald Trump, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, have given a first flavor of the tone and direction of their relationship in the immediate future.
According to the Washington Post, they spoke on November 7, with Trump warning Putin against any escalation in Ukraine and reminding him of “Washington’s sizeable military presence in Europe.” The report was quickly denied by the Kremlin.
Regardless of whether it happened or not, any exchange of messages between the pair should be heeded by America’s allies in the West, as well as Russia’s major partner in the east, China’s Xi Jinping. And there has been plenty of such messaging over the past few months.
Earlier on the day of the alleged phone call, Putin gave a long address at the annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club think tank in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.
Unsurprisingly, the speech, and his answers to questions afterwards, were anti-Western and full of confidence that a new world order was now in “the phase of genuine creation.”
Restoring relations
But at the same time, Putin took pains to flatter Trump as a “courageous man,” saying he would consider any proposals from him aimed at restoring relations between Moscow and Washington, and ending what the Russian president called the “Ukrainian crisis.”
But he then spent more time making the case for the relationship between Russia and China. Here his audience was less the incoming US president and more his old friend Xi.
The reason for this goes back to one of Trump’s messages to Putin and Xi.
He told Tucker Carlson at a campaign event last month that he would work to “un-unite” Russia and China. Trump implied that the two are “natural enemies” because Moscow has vast territory that Beijing covets for its population.
Russia and China have a history of conflict over territory along their long land border in Siberia. This was part of the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s, which preceded the US opening to Beijing under then-president Richard Nixon in the 1970s.
In contrast to Nixon, Trump looks set to try to reset relations with Russia rather than China. While it’s hard to imagine a similar split today, his desire to exploit discord to the advantage of the US should not be dismissed as completely unrealistic either.
On the face of it, Putin and Xi are closely aligned. But a deeper dive into the relationship suggests it’s primarily one between them, and lacks institutional depth that other alliances have. There is a lot of resentment of China in Russia in both public and policy circles.
Russians remain wary of China’s growing role in Central Asia and worry about the potential for disputes over long-contested borders. Many are also resentful of the fact that Moscow is now a junior partner to Beijing.
These are potentially all issues that Trump could use to drive a wedge between Russia and China. But a lot hinges on what Putin perceives is in it for Russia. This should be focusing minds in the West about what shape Trump’s Ukraine policy will take.
Territorial gains
A Trump-brokered agreement is likely to involve the recognition of Russian territorial gains in Ukraine since 2014, complete sanctions relief and broad international rehabilitation. It would also involve a down-scaling of the US commitment to NATO expansion.
He might get a deal, but whether Putin would stick to it is questionable. He is much more likely to simply play both sides in the hope that Russia might in this way become a third peer alongside China and the US in an emerging new international order.
This is, of course, a complete fantasy given the size of the Russian economy alone, but unlikely to affect Putin’s calculations, given his longing to restore superpower status.
An American opening to Moscow, as opposed to Beijing, is also difficult to imagine because America’s European partners are unlikely to go along with it.
Some, like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico might find the idea attractive in general, but Germany and France, among others in the European Union, are more likely to want to make a deal with China.
The reason for this is economic. They have largely overcome their dependence on Russian oil and gas, but not on China as an export market.
Beijing, meanwhile, will not sit idly by while Trump tries to drive a wedge between Russia and China. Despite Putin’s efforts to build parallel relations with North Korea and Iran, Xi retains economic leverage over Moscow and is going to use it to keep it on side.
Diplomatically, Putin depends on Xi and China-led groups such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the BRICS. While there are differences between Moscow and Beijing, they also share a world view of a US in terminal decline.
This is likely to be further accelerated by the upheaval from a second Trump term.
Strike a deal
For China in particular, preventing Washington from completely pivoting to the Indo-Pacific will be a key priority. And not allowing Trump to announce an agreement with Putin at China’s expense will be high on Xi’s agenda as a means to achieving that end.
He might still strike a deal on Ukraine. But such an agreement with Putin is not the same as dividing Russia and China. On the contrary, it is more likely to “un-unite” Europe and the United States and to further weaken the transatlantic alliance.
Rather than making “America Great Again,” Trump could further hasten its decline by mistaking the destruction of what is left of the liberal international order with its reshaping according to the interests of the US.
Stefan Wolff is a Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.