Xi’s EU blunder will be costly with Trump in the wings
China’s backing of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned Brussels into an enemy in the tariff wars
President Xi Jinping is scrambling to repair China’s shattered relationship with the European Union ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. But his close ties with Russia’s autocratic leader, Vladimir Putin, look certain to doom diplomatic moves.
A flood of heavily subsidized, cheap, high-tech exports, such as electric vehicles, has triggered a tariff war between Brussels and Beijing. Still, the greatest challenge is Xi’s “no-limits” partnership with Putin and Moscow’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
“Russia’s war on Ukraine is a direct threat to European security,” Natalie Sabanadze, of the policy institute Chatham House, Abigael Vasselier, of the Mercator Institute for China Studies, and Gunnar Wiegand, of the German Marshall Fund, pointed out.
“Beijing’s assistance to Russia turns China into a security threat to be contained rather than only a ‘partner, competitor and systemic rival,’” they wrote in a major report published by MERICS, the Berlin-based think tank, in the summer.
China is providing Russia with an economic lifeline.
MERICS report
Parallel worlds:
- Xi’s regime has been accused of supplying dual-use technology to Moscow’s military machine, including “drones” and “chips.”
- At the same time, it is propping up an economy in crisis with waves of cheap advanced tech exports to Europe, threatening the continent’s manufacturing industries.
Delve deeper: Beijing has denied assisting Moscow in its war aims despite signing rock-bottom oil and gas deals with Russia. Instead, it blames Brussels for the trade conflict amid fears of “de-coupling and a new Cold War.”
Between the lines: “As long as China and Europe reject bloc confrontation and say ‘no’ to de-coupling, a new Cold War can be avoided,” Feng Zhongping, of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told state-run China Daily earlier this week.
Big picture: The MERICS report paints a radically different view. “China is providing Russia with an economic lifeline, helping Moscow to circumvent Western sanctions and expand its military-industrial complex with unrestricted exports,” it revealed.
China Factor comment: On Monday, we pointed out that China’s trade surplus is poised to hit a staggering US$1 trillion this year. The tariff wars have only just begun.