Will the next human on the moon speak Mandarin?

Will the next human to walk on the Moon speak English or Mandarin? In all, 12 Americans landed on the lunar surface between 1969 and 1972. Now, both the United States and China are preparing to send humans back there this decade.

Yet, the US lunar program is partly delayed because the spacesuits and landing vehicles are not ready. Meanwhile, China has pledged to put astronauts on the Moon by 2030 and has a habit of sticking to timelines.

Just a few years ago, such a scenario would have seemed unlikely. But there now appears to be a realistic possibility that China could beat the US in a race that America, arguably, has defined. So who will return there first, and does it really matter?

NASA’s Moon program is called Artemis. The US has involved international and commercial partners to spread the cost. NASA set out a plan to get American boots back on lunar soil over the course of three missions.

In November 2022, it launched its Orion spacecraft on a loop around the Moon without humans aboard. This was the Artemis I mission.

Artemis II, scheduled for late 2025, is similar, but this time Orion will carry four astronauts. They will not land as this will be left to Artemis III. For that mission, NASA will send a man and the first woman to the lunar surface.

Space program

Although as yet unnamed, one of them will be the first person of color on the Moon.

Artemis III was scheduled to launch this year, but the timescale has slipped several times. A review in 2023 gave a one-in-three chance that it would not be launched by February 2028. The mission is currently slated to happen no earlier than 2026.

Meanwhile, China’s space program is moving at speed without significant failures or delays. In April, officials announced it was on track to put its astronauts on the Moon by 2030.

It’s an extraordinary trajectory for a country that launched its first astronaut in 2003. China has been operating space stations since 2011 and has been ticking off important, challenging firsts through its Chang’e lunar exploration program.

These robotic missions returned samples from the surface, including from the far side of Moon. They have tested technology that could be crucial for landing humans. The next mission will touch down at the lunar south pole.

It is a region that attracts interest because of the presence of water ice in shadowed craters.

This could be used for life support by a lunar base and turned into rocket fuel. It would be cheaper than bringing it from Earth, making lunar exploration more affordable. It is for these reasons that Artemis III will land at the south pole.

It is also the planned location for US and Chinese-led bases.

In September, China showed off a spacesuit, to be worn by its Moon walkers, or “selenauts”. The suit is designed to protect the wearer against extreme temperature variations and unfiltered solar radiation. It is lightweight and flexible.

Is this a sign it is already overtaking the US in one aspect of the Moon race? The company manufacturing the Artemis Moon suit, Axiom Space, is having to modify several aspects of the reference design given to them by NASA.

Test flight

The lander that will carry American astronauts to the surface is also delayed. In 2021, Elon Musk’s SpaceX was given the contract to build it. Based on SpaceX’s Starship, it consists of a 50-meter-long craft that launches on the most powerful rocket ever built.

Last month, Starship scored a successful fifth test flight. But several challenging steps are required before the Human Landing System can carry astronauts down to the lunar surface. Starship cannot fly directly to the Moon. It must refuel in Earth orbit first.

SpaceX needs to demonstrate refueling and conduct a test landing on the Moon without crew before Artemis III can proceed.

In addition, during Artemis I, Orion’s heat shield suffered considerable damage as the spacecraft made the high-temperature return through Earth’s atmosphere. NASA engineers have been working to find a remedy before the Artemis II mission.

Some critics argue that it is too complex, referring to the intricate way in which astronauts and Moon lander are brought together in lunar orbit, the large number of commercial partners, and the number of Starship launches required.

Depending on who you ask, between four and 15 Starship flights are needed to complete the refueling for Artemis III.

Former NASA administrator Michael Griffin has advocated a simpler strategy, along the lines of how China expects to accomplish its landing. His vision sees NASA relying on traditional commercial partners such as Boeing, rather than relative “newbies” such as SpaceX.

Still, simple is not necessarily better or cheaper. The Apollo program was simpler but at almost three times the cost of Artemis. SpaceX has been more successful and economical than Boeing in sending crews to the International Space Station.

New technology is not developed through simple, tried approaches but in bold endeavours. The James Webb Space Telescope is highly complex, with its folded mirror and distant position in space, but it allows astronomers to peer into the depths of the universe.

Innovation is especially crucial bearing in mind future ambitions such as asteroid mining and a settlement on Mars.

Does it matter whether the first 21st-century selenauts are Chinese or American? This is largely a question about the relationship between nations and their citizens.

Public support

Democratic governments depend on public support to safeguard funding for expensive, long-term ventures – and prestige is an important selling point. But prestige in a 21st-century Moon race will be earned by doing it well, not sooner.

Rushing back to the Moon could be costly, both financially and the risk to human life.

Governments must set an example of responsible behavior. Going back to the Moon must not be about superiority. It should be a chance to show that we can improve on how we have previously behaved on planet Earth.

Jacco van Loon is a Reader in Astrophysics at Keele University in the United Kingdom.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.