Would China’s military risk a sneak strike on Japan?
Targeting American and Japanese ‘military forces’ could be a prelude to a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
China could “launch a surprise attack against Japan” and United States “military” bases as a prelude to a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.
The chilling scenario was mapped out by Dan Blumenthal, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington-based conservative think tank.
He warned in a commentary that the People’s Liberation Army or PLA has “emphasized” a Pearl Harbor-style “preemptive” strike before an assault on the democratic island of Taiwan. The target would be Japan.
“The logic of such a campaign is straightforward. To conquer Taiwan, [the] PLA would need to establish air and naval supremacy around the island,” he wrote for the political website, The Hill, at the weekend.
“Japan hosts the majority of allied naval and sea power, [and] there is little doubt that the PLA is capable of a devastating first strike,” Blumenthal pointed out in an article entitled, Is China preparing to attack Japan?
“It has overwhelming precision striking power knitted together with pervasive intelligence … it could knock out most US military [bases] on the Japanese archipelago while cratering US runaways and disabling vital ports,” he added.
The counter-attack against the mainland would be massive.
Dan Blumenthal of the American Enterprise Institute
Countdown to invasion:
- “A preemptive” attack would provide the Chinese with the air and maritime superiority to invade Taiwan.
- “Historically, no modern amphibious operation has been successful” before “neutralizing “its adversary’s navy and air force.”
- “In such a scenario, the PLA would ferry hundreds of thousands of troops across the Taiwan Strait with naval vessels and dual-use civilian ships.”
Delve deeper: But this would be a colossal gamble, sparking the risk of World War III. Failure by President Xi Jinping and the ruling Communist Party to force Washington and Tokyo onto the sidelines would consign them to historical oblivion.
Big picture: “Eventually, the counter-attack [by the US and its allies] against military targets [and infrastructure] on [China’s] mainland would be massive. The Chinese economy would be severely damaged [and hit by suffocating sanctions],” Blumenthal noted.
Between the lines: In the end, Xi is more likely to continue a “coercive campaign to break Taiwan’s political will, while keeping the US out of the fight,” he said.
China Factor comment: The PLA Navy has conducted massive live-fire drills, encircling Taiwan, which Beijing considers “a renegade province.” On Saturday, it also took part in naval exercises with Russia’s Pacific Fleet in the Sea of Japan. Yet another provocative move.