Naval power replaces ‘people power’ in China’s playbook

China would roll out protests and boycotts during diplomatic disputes in years gone by. Now, the ruling Communist Party prefers to roll out the largest fleet in the world. Naval power has replaced ‘people power’ in foreign relations.  

Twenty-five years ago, the American Air Force “accidentally bombed” the Chinese embassy during an attack on the then-Yugoslav capital of Belgrade. Three people were killed, sparking outrage in China’s state-controlled media.

What followed culminated in thousands of protesters throwing rocks and encircling the United States embassy in Beijing. A boycott of American products was also called for as the Communist Party made its point.

“For Chinese leaders, this was par for the course,” Raphael J Piliero, of the  Harvard Kennedy School, and Elliot S Ji, of Princeton University, wrote in a commentary for Foreign Policy, which was published earlier this week.

“In responding to international crises, China’s playbook [involved] stoking anti-foreign protests to show resolve and pressure the other side to desist,” they pointed out.

China has attempted to expand control of the South China Sea.

Raphael J Piliero, of the  Harvard Kennedy School, and Elliot S Ji, of Princeton University

Changing times:

• The Belgrade incident came at the height of NATO’s air operations against Yugoslavia in 1999.
• It was launched “in response to a wave of ethnic cleansing” carried out “by Serbian forces against the Kosovar Albanians.”
• Today, President Xi Jinping “prefers fleet power to street protests.”

Delve deeper: “[He] has moved away from former leader Deng Xiaoping’s mantra of ‘hide and bide’ as China has grown increasingly powerful. Old territorial disputes have been dusted off,” Piliero and Ji explained.

Between the lines: “China has attempted to expand control of the South China Sea, pushed Japan in the East China Sea, and exerted unrelenting pressure on Taiwan,” they said.

Big picture: Still, these “crises” were “initiated by” Beijing, “making domestic protests a less effective tool to coerce weaker countries compared to military harassment by air and sea.”

The bottom line: The tactic was used against Taiwan after then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in 2022. The island democracy was encircled by a Chinese carrier group and other warships with jets screaming overhead. 

China Factor comment: In the past few months, a similar strategy has been used against the Philippines over disputed shoals in the South China Sea. Only this time, huge Chinese Coast Guard vessels have been deployed.