Trump’s running mate sees China as the main threat
Vance’s shape-shifting views make it difficult to forecast what his role would mean for the Indo-Pacific
JD Vance has emerged as Donald Trump’s 2024 running mate and the heir apparent to the America First movement after months of gamesmanship and speculation.
The 39-year-old former venture capitalist is a US Marine veteran and best-selling author of the 2016 memoir Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis.
With less than two years in Congress under his belt, the first-term senator from Ohio has little experience in politics, let alone conducting foreign policy.
Yet Vance represents a clear departure from the Ronald Reagan-era views that characterized Trump’s previous vice president, Mike Pence, who spent much of his time in office making trips to reassure US allies and partners overseas.
Pence delivered speeches providing strategic clarity to Trump’s often unpredictable actions.
Vociferous opponent
As Trump’s VP pick, Vance’s foreign policy stance could prove similarly influential if the former president is re-elected in November. So, what could a Vance vice presidency mean for the rest of the world?
He is one of many so-called “Asia First” Republican politicians who want to limit US attention on Europe and reorient the country’s resources towards countering China’s rise.
In the US Congress, he has garnered a reputation as one of the most vociferous opponents of continued American aid to Ukraine, saying it has “provided a blanket of security to Europe for far too long.”
He has called for European allies to “step up” their own military contributions to Kyiv. Just after Russia’s invasion in February 2022, in fact, Vance bluntly declared:
I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.
At the same time, Vance maintains he is not advocating for the US to “abandon Europe”. Rather, he wants to focus on what he sees as a more pressing threat to US interests – competition with China. “That’s where the real enemy is,” he said last year.
Vance describes his position on Beijing as a “straightforward argument.” His views include increasing support for American manufacturing to counter China’s rise, saying “we should be making more of our stuff” even at the cost of a “couple basis points GDP.”
Rust Belt
He believes increasing tariffs on Chinese imports will create economic opportunities in Rust Belt states like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Vance has even praised President Joe Biden’s 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, aimed at boosting domestic semiconductor manufacturing so the US can better compete with China and other countries, as a “great piece of legislation.”
While the US and its allies have maintained normal trade relations with China ever since its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2000, he has co-sponsored legislation to revoke China’s favored trade status.
Such a move would be hugely destabilizing for the global economy.
Though Vance wants to reorient the US towards the Indo-Pacific region to counter China, he has spoken relatively little about American alliances in Asia.
In February, he gave a brief nod to Australia when he described himself as a “fan of AUKUS” during remarks at the Munich Security Conference.
In the broader region, Vance has said he wants to “try to promote” US allies with aligned interests while encouraging “those who are a little bit more on the fence to think about things from our perspective.”
He has based his support for Taiwan in economic terms, saying the self-governing island that China has vowed to retake by force, if necessary, must be protected because of the risk that an invasion could “decimate our entire economy.”
Electric vehicles
Like a number of his views, his position on climate change shifted when he ran for the US Senate in 2022.
Two years earlier, he spoke of the “climate problem” facing the United States. But when seeking Trump’s endorsement for the Senate, he described himself as “sceptical” of human responsibility for climate change. He also sought to repeal US tax credits for electric vehicles.
In the past, Vance has singled out foreign policy as a key factor in his support for Trump.
Last year when many Republicans were supporting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ presidential aspirations, he penned an op-ed endorsing Trump’s presidential run and lauding his first term as “the first real disruption to a failed consensus” in US foreign policy.
In the piece, Vance praised Trump’s “successful foreign policy” as the “most important part” of his legacy, saying he “started no wars” and pushed for the United States to “take more responsibility for its own defense.”
Previous vice presidents have scorned the office for its subsidiary role and limited power compared to the presidency. There is every chance that in a second Trump presidency, the position would be no different.
But Biden himself has shown how vice presidents can carve out their own roles as key advisers, particularly when it comes to foreign policy. And with Trump’s backing, Vance could also be well set up for his own run for the presidency in 2028.
Future administration
His shape-shifting views make it difficult to forecast exactly what his role as Trump’s deputy could mean for the Indo-Pacific region.
But paying close attention to his foreign policy philosophy as it evolves in the coming months may prove crucial to understanding the contours of a second Trump term – or indeed a future Vance administration.
Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett are Research Associates at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of China Factor.